Knowing how far each seed is expected to advance (i.e., the number of expected wins in the tournament) provides useful information for assessing a bracket. The following table gives the number of times each seed has won in a particular round, the expected number of wins for each seed, and the standard deviation for the number of wins for each seed (a measure of the variability for the number of wins).

Seed | R64, R32, S16, E8, F4, NF | Expected Number of Wins | Standard Deviation for the Number of Wins |
---|---|---|---|

1 | 128, 111, 89, 52, 30, 19 | 3.35 | 1.57 |

2 | 120, 81, 60, 268, 13, 5 | 2.40 | 1.52 |

3 | 107, 65, 31, 14, 9, 4 | 1.80 | 1.44 |

4 | 102, 59, 20, 13, 3, 1 | 1.55 | 1.26 |

5 | 82, 43, 8, 6, 3, 0 | 1.11 | 1.13 |

6 | 82, 42, 14, 3, 2, 1 | 1.13 | 1.14 |

7 | 78, 23, 9, 2, 1, 1 | 0.89 | 0.99 |

8 | 64, 12, 8, 5, 3, 1 | 0.73 | 1.06 |

9 | 64, 5, 2, 1, 0, 0 | 0.56 | 0.66 |

10 | 50, 23, 8, 1, 0, 0 | 0.64 | 0.94 |

11 | 46, 19, 6, 3, 0, 0 | 0.58 | 0.93 |

12 | 46, 20, 1, 0, 0, 0 | 0.52 | 0.77 |

13 | 26, 6, 0, 0, 0, 0 | 0.25 | 0.53 |

14 | 21, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0 | 0.18 | 0.42 |

15 | 8, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0 | 0.07 | 0.29 |

16 | 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |

For comments and feedback on this website, send an email to bracketodds@illinois.edu.

Follow us on twitter: @shjanalytics

Media requests should be made by either emailing bracketodds@illinois.edu

or calling 217-244-7275.

bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu © 2017 - The Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois.

All Rights Reserved.