Seed Distributions for March Madness 2017: A Tool for Bracketologists

How Far Does Each Seed Advance?

Knowing how far each seed is expected to advance (i.e., the number of expected wins in the tournament) provides useful information for assessing a bracket. The following table gives the number of times each seed has won in a particular round, the expected number of wins for each seed, and the standard deviation for the number of wins for each seed (a measure of the variability for the number of wins).

Seed R64, R32, S16, E8, F4, NF Expected Number of Wins Standard Deviation for the Number of Wins
1 128, 111, 89, 52, 30, 19 3.35 1.57
2 120, 81, 60, 268, 13, 5 2.40 1.52
3 107, 65, 31, 14, 9, 4 1.80 1.44
4 102, 59, 20, 13, 3, 1 1.55 1.26
5 82, 43, 8, 6, 3, 0 1.11 1.13
6 82, 42, 14, 3, 2, 1 1.13 1.14
7 78, 23, 9, 2, 1, 1 0.89 0.99
8 64, 12, 8, 5, 3, 1 0.73 1.06
9 64, 5, 2, 1, 0, 0 0.56 0.66
10 50, 23, 8, 1, 0, 0 0.64 0.94
11 46, 19, 6, 3, 0, 0 0.58 0.93
12 46, 20, 1, 0, 0, 0 0.52 0.77
13 26, 6, 0, 0, 0, 0 0.25 0.53
14 21, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0 0.18 0.42
15 8, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0 0.07 0.29
16 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 0.00 0.00

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