Information You Need to Know to Help You Build Your Bracket in 2013

Building a bracket is easy. Building a good bracket is challenging. It is difficult to imagine teams seeded No. 1, No.2, or No. 3 losing early in the tournament, yet they do, with great regularity. The challenge is deciding which of these seeds will lose, and when exactly they will lose.

In the round of 64, the 5-12 upset gets a great deal of attention. In the 28 tournaments from 1985 through 2012, the No. 12 seeds had a 38-74 record. In fact, in 11 of the past 28 tournaments, 2 or 3 No. 12 seeds advanced to the round of 32. What gets less attention is the 6-11 upset. In the 28 tournaments from 1985 through 2012, the No. 11 seeds had a 38-74 record. Moreover, in 11 of the past 28 tournaments, 2, 3 or all 4 No. 11 seeds advanced to the round of 32. Collectively, an average of 4.36 teams seeded No 11 or lower (worse) advanced to the round of 32. Also, in 20 of the past 28 tournaments, 4 or more teams seeded No 11 or lower (worse) advanced to the round of 32. However, an average of 1.6 teams seeded No. 13 or lower (worse) have won in this round, so picking one or two such upsets is prudent.

In the round of 32, teams seeded No. 7 and lower continue to advance. In 24 of the past 28 tournaments, two or more of these teams have reached the Sweet Sixteen, with an average of 3.39 of these teams reaching this round. In fact, only once (1995) in the past 28 tournaments has there not been a team seeded No. 7 or lower reaching the Sweet Sixteen. Moreover, an average of 1.46 teams seeded No. 11 or lower reached the Sweet Sixteen, and in 24 of the past 28 tournaments, one or more of these teams reached the Sweet Sixteen. Among highly seeded teams, in 19 of the past 28 tournaments, 8 or fewer teams seeded No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 reached the Sweet Sixteen.

The Final Four draws the most attention. The following table gives the probabilities for the number of No. 1 seeds that reach this round.

P(Zero No. 1)	0.149
P(One No. 1)	0.363
P(Two No. 1)	0.332
P(Three No. 1)	0.135
P(Four No. 1)	0.021

It is over seven times more likely for a Final Four to contain zero No. 1 seeds than it is to contain four No. 1 seeds. Picking one or two No. 1 seeds in the Final Four is prudent.

The odds against one or more No. 16 seeds reaching the Final Four is 828 to 1.

The odds against one or more No. 15 or No. 16 seeds reaching the Final Four is 317 to 1.

The odds against one or more No. 14, No. 15, or No. 16 seeds reaching the Final Four is 159 to 1.

The odds against one or more No. 13 through No. 16 seeds reaching the Final Four is 88 to 1.

The odds against one or more No. 12 through No. 16 seeds reaching the Final Four is 51 to 1.

The odds against one or more No. 11 through No. 16 seeds reaching the Final Four is 30 to 1. This has happened three times over the past 28 tournaments (1986, 2006, 2011).

The odds against one or more No. 10 through No. 16 seeds reaching the Final Four is 18 to 1.

The odds against only teams seeded No. 3 or lower (worse) reaching the Final Four is 44 to 1. This has happened once over the past 28 tournaments (2011).

The odds against only teams seeded No. 1, No. 2, or No. 3 reaching the Final Four is 2 to 1. This has happened 11 times over the past 28 tournaments (1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1998, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009).

Enjoy filling out your bracket and watch the upsets unfold. Let the games begin!